Circle Quarter with 77% Revenue Jump: How Strong is the Profit Boom?

Can the strong Circle quarter with USDC boom and profit surge sustainably elevate the stock into a new valuation zone?

How strong was the Circle quarter really?

In the most recent Circle quarter, the fourth quarter of 2025, Circle Internet Group increased total revenue, including reserve earnings, by 77% to $770 million. Analysts had previously expected around $747 to $748 million, so the company clearly exceeded consensus expectations. Circle reported earnings per share of $0.43—almost three times the forecasted $0.16.

The stablecoin specialist also made a significant operational impact: adjusted EBITDA soared to $167 million, approximately 412% higher than the previous year. The adjusted EBITDA margin reached an impressive 54%, underscoring the high profitability of its business model based on reserve earnings and transaction fees. Ultimately, the quarter ended with a net profit of $133.4 million.

For the entire year of 2025, Circle reported revenue of $2.7 billion, a 64% increase compared to the previous year. Although a net loss of $70 million was reported, this was primarily due to stock-based compensation totaling $424 million related to last year’s IPO. Operationally, the company remained positive with approximately $157 million.

Circle Internet Group: How does USDC drive growth?

The core of the business in the Circle quarter is the stablecoin USD Coin (USDC). The circulating USDC supply increased by 72% year-over-year to $75.3 billion. On its own platform, USDC volume multiplied by 5.6 times to $12.5 billion, now accounting for 17% of the total circulation.

Onchain transaction volume developed particularly dynamically: with nearly $11.9 to just under $12 trillion in the quarter, Circle recorded growth of 247% year-over-year. This indicates a significantly growing use of the “digital dollar” for payments, trading, and decentralized finance applications. Concurrently, the Euro-denominated stablecoin EURC also saw strong growth, with its circulation nearly quadrupling year-over-year to €310 million and rising to €389 million by February.

Key growth drivers also include new partnerships in payment processing. Through the Circle Payments Network, 55 financial institutions are now connected, up from 29 in the previous quarter. The annualized payment volume stood at $5.7 billion at the end of February, representing a sequential growth of 68%. Names like Visa, Mastercard, JPMorgan, Interactive Brokers, Intuit, Cash App, Gusto, and Deel are already leveraging USDC-based products.

How is the market reacting to the strong Circle quarter?

The strong metrics have not gone unnoticed in the market. Shares of Circle Internet Group (CRCL) initially rose by about 14% to 18% in pre-market trading and surged by more than 20% after the opening of the New York Stock Exchange. At one point, the stock climbed to around $73 to $74, after closing the previous day at $71.

Market observers particularly appreciate the company’s ability to translate the rapidly increasing USDC volume into profitable growth. The company benefits from a more stable regulatory environment for stablecoins, partly due to the Genius Act passed in the U.S. last year. Despite a temporary cooling in the crypto market, demand for the dollar-pegged token remained high, reinforcing USDC’s role as an infrastructure component in the digital financial system.

CEO Jeremy Allaire also outlines a growth story at the intersection of crypto and artificial intelligence. Circle is working on agent-based payment systems and is testing a solution called “Circle Gateway,” which aims to enable AI agents to perform autonomous, programmable cross-chain USDC transactions for fees as low as $0.00001. Additionally, the public testnet of “Arc,” a blockchain infrastructure platform, is underway, with over 100 institutional participants already onboarded.

What do analysts say about Circle Internet Group?

In light of the strong Circle quarter, analysts are largely optimistic. Citigroup rates the stock positively and sets a price target of $243, implying significant long-term upside potential. The bank points to Circle’s leading role in the stablecoin market and the prospect that industry revenues could multiply in the next five to ten years.

Mizuho takes a more cautious stance, maintaining a neutral rating with a price target of $77. Here, the focus is primarily on the dependency on reserve earnings and the fact that Circle passes a significant portion of its revenue to partners like Coinbase. Furthermore, potential interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve could pressure earnings from USDC reserves in the future.

Bottom Line

For the fiscal year 2026, management aims for other income between $150 million and $170 million, expects an RLDC margin of 38% to 40%, and adjusted operating expenses of $570 million to $585 million. This indicates that efficiency and scaling will become even more prominent in the coming quarters.