ThyssenKrupp Forecast: +5.8% Rally Opportunity After Jefferies Upgrade

Can the new ThyssenKrupp forecast from Jefferies turn the restructuring into a value-driving rally, or is the price jump just a flash in the pan?

ThyssenKrupp: What is behind the price recovery?

The shares of ThyssenKrupp AG rose by about 5.8% to approximately €11.38 on Friday afternoon, making them one of the strongest performers in the MDAX. The previous day’s closing price was €10.77. The stock has significantly distanced itself from the yearly low of €4.70, but remains below the 52-week high of €12.48. Since the record low in autumn 2024 at around €2.08, the price has increased sixfold, although there is still a long way to go to reach the historical highs of around €35 from 2007.

The current surge is driven by a fresh buy recommendation: The U.S. analysis firm Jefferies upgraded the stock from “Hold” to “Buy” and raised the price target from €12.50 to €13.00. Analyst Tommaso Castello views the recent price correction as an entry opportunity into an “event stock,” where individual restructuring steps could unlock significant value.

ThyssenKrupp Forecast: How optimistic is Jefferies?

At the center is the updated ThyssenKrupp forecast from Jefferies for the operating result in 2026. Castello raised his EBITDA estimate by about five percent, which is approximately six percent above the current market consensus. Despite expected negative free cash flow values between -€600M and -€400M for 2026, the experts emphasize the strategic nature of the high expenditures: About €350M is to be allocated to restructuring costs, with additional investments of €1.4B to €1.6B planned, roughly half of which will go into steel production.

Jefferies expects that these burdens will pay off in the medium to long term and that a turnaround in cash inflow is possible by the second half of 2026. The ThyssenKrupp forecast is supported by political backing for the European steel industry, such as import quotas and industrial policy support programs from the EU. With a financial cushion of around €3.7B in net capital, Jefferies sees the company solidly positioned despite macroeconomic uncertainties.

ThyssenKrupp: What restructuring plans drive the story?

Investors are paying close attention to the strategic options of the company. Jefferies identifies three potential transactions as central price drivers: First, the possible sale of the steel division Steel Europe, for which negotiations are currently underway with the Indian company Jindal. Second, an IPO or sale of the elevator subsidiary tk Elevator, in which ThyssenKrupp AG still holds a minority stake. Third, a spin-off of the materials trading division Material Services.

Such steps could, according to Castello, unlock significant valuation reserves, as different business segments often achieve higher multiples separately in the capital market. At the same time, the company remains a cyclical industrial and steel stock, whose earnings development strongly depends on the economy, steel prices, and energy costs. The new ThyssenKrupp forecast therefore relies on a combination of internal efficiency measures and external support through regulation and economic recovery.

ThyssenKrupp Forecast: What does the chart technical picture look like?

Chart-wise, the stock is slightly above its 200-day line, which recently transitioned from a steep upward trend to a flatter sideways movement. After an increase of about 86% over twelve months, the overarching trend remains intact, even though the momentum has eased. Forecast models that consider seasonal patterns and implied volatility from the options market see a wide range of possible price targets between €9 and €17 in the coming weeks. The risk-reward profile remains speculative but attractive for risk-tolerant investors.

Additional investment solutions such as capped bonus certificates offer alternative ways to participate in the ThyssenKrupp forecast, as they also provide yield opportunities in sideways or moderately declining markets. However, for directly invested shareholders, the implementation of the restructuring and the next phase of strategic decisions remain the key price drivers.

The recent price correction presents an attractive entry opportunity into an interesting investment story with ThyssenKrupp.
— Tommaso Castello, Analyst at Jefferies

Bottom Line

The combination of the Jefferies upgrade, clearly defined ThyssenKrupp forecast through 2026, and deep restructuring brings the MDAX stock back into focus. For investors who believe in the successful implementation of the restructuring plans, pullbacks could continue to offer attractive entry opportunities. The coming months and potential deal announcements in the steel and elevator business will likely show whether the current price recovery transitions into a sustainable upward trend.