Will the upcoming SpaceX Earnings report spark a massive post-IPO rally, or will the looming insider lockup trigger a major sell-off?
Why Are SpaceX Earnings Highly Anticipated?
The upcoming **SpaceX Earnings** will represent the first time the company opens its financial books as a public entity. Wall Street analysts expect the company to report revenue near $6.9 billion, alongside a projected per-share loss of $0.22 to $0.28. While the company remains unprofitable due to heavy capital expenditures on its Mars and Moon programs, investors are highly focused on its long-term growth trajectory.
A major concern ahead of the **SpaceX Earnings** release is the looming insider lockup expiration on August 6, just two days after the report. Nearly 900 million restricted shares could become eligible for sale, creating a potential supply overhang. High-profile early investors, including Alphabet, which holds a massive stake now valued at $94.1 billion, may begin selling. This influx of shares is expected to nearly triple the public float. Consequently, passive ETFs tracking the Nasdaq-100 will likely buy more shares to adjust their weightings, regardless of short-term price fluctuations.
How Did Starship Flight 13 Impact the Stock?
Operationally, SpaceX continues to achieve major milestones. Over the weekend, the company completed its 13th Starship test flight. For the first time, the rocket carried a functional payload of 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites into low Earth orbit. While the upper stage successfully survived atmospheric reentry and landed in the Indian Ocean, the Super Heavy booster suffered a hard landing in the Gulf of Mexico after several engines failed to reignite.
Despite the technical success, the stock failed to find support, dropping over 4% in Monday’s trading. The market’s reaction reflects broader sector pressure. Competitors like Rocket Lab are gaining traction, recently securing a $266 million contract from the U.S. Space Force. Meanwhile, tech giants like Meta Platforms are entering the computing market, competing with SpaceX’s ambitions to offer orbital AI cloud services from space-based data centers.
What Do Wall Street Analysts Predict?
Wall Street remains highly divided on the stock’s valuation. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas recently reiterated an “Overweight” rating with a $300 price target. Jonas argues that the current bearish sentiment is overdone and undervalues the company’s long-term AI and connectivity potential. Similarly, Bernstein Research analyst Douglas S. Harned kept an “Outperform” rating with a $239 target, calling Flight 13 a major success.
Conversely, HSBC initiated coverage with a “Hold” rating and a conservative $115 target. Some retail investors are following the lead of Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood, who recently purchased $21.3 million worth of shares for her funds, viewing the post-IPO correction as a buying opportunity. The company’s valuation continues to be carried by its massive addressable market and the track record of founder Elon Musk, who also leads Tesla.
Related Coverage
We believe we are the only company with a commercially viable path to building orbital AI compute at scale.— SpaceX SEC Form S-1
For more insights into these market dynamics, read about the SpaceX IPO -40% Plunge: Huge Valuation Shock Hits Wall Street to understand the ongoing supply risks. Additionally, investors can track broader defense sector momentum in Lockheed Martin Earnings Rise +2.3% as Record Backlog Sparks Rally to compare aerospace valuations.
